dor_id: 4147271
506.#.#.a: Público
590.#.#.d: Los artículos enviados a la revista "Atmósfera", se juzgan por medio de un proceso de revisión por pares
510.0.#.a: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT); Sistema Regional de Información en Línea para Revistas Científicas de América Latina, el Caribe, España y Portugal (Latindex); Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO); SCOPUS, Web Of Science (WoS); SCImago Journal Rank (SJR)
561.#.#.u: https://www.atmosfera.unam.mx/
650.#.4.x: Físico Matemáticas y Ciencias de la Tierra
336.#.#.b: article
336.#.#.3: Artículo de Investigación
336.#.#.a: Artículo
351.#.#.6: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index
351.#.#.b: Atmósfera
351.#.#.a: Artículos
harvesting_group: RevistasUNAM
270.1.#.p: Revistas UNAM. Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial, UNAM en revistas@unam.mx
590.#.#.c: Open Journal Systems (OJS)
270.#.#.d: MX
270.1.#.d: México
590.#.#.b: Concentrador
883.#.#.u: https://revistas.unam.mx/catalogo/
883.#.#.a: Revistas UNAM
590.#.#.a: Coordinación de Difusión Cultural
883.#.#.1: https://www.publicaciones.unam.mx/
883.#.#.q: Dirección General de Publicaciones y Fomento Editorial
850.#.#.a: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
856.4.0.u: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/53248/46977
100.1.#.a: Da Fonseca Aguiar, Louise; Cataldi, Marcio; Marton, Edilson; Ribeiro, Eric Miguel; Da Cunha Luz, Priscila
524.#.#.a: Da Fonseca Aguiar, Louise, et al. (2024). Evaluation of the SACZ index as a prognostic tool based on GFS forecasts. Atmósfera; Vol. 38, 2024; 91-104. Recuperado de https://repositorio.unam.mx/contenidos/4147271
245.1.0.a: Evaluation of the SACZ index as a prognostic tool based on GFS forecasts
502.#.#.c: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
561.1.#.a: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM
264.#.0.c: 2024
264.#.1.c: 2023-08-01
653.#.#.a: atmospheric modeling; weather forecasting; South Atlantic Convergence Zone
506.1.#.a: La titularidad de los derechos patrimoniales de esta obra pertenece a las instituciones editoras. Su uso se rige por una licencia Creative Commons BY-NC 4.0 Internacional, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode.es, para un uso diferente consultar al responsable jurídico del repositorio por medio del correo electrónico editora@atmosfera.unam.mx
884.#.#.k: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/article/view/53248
001.#.#.#: 022.oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/53248
041.#.7.h: eng
520.3.#.a: The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is an atmospheric phenomenon typical of summertime where a band of nebulosity causes intense or persistent rainfall in many regions of Brazil. SACZ episodes can be responsible for many natural disasters. Besides, the impacts of rainfall on water availability and consequently on the energy sector are extensive. The main objective of this study was to investigate the implementation of the SACZ index as an objective forecasting tool using input data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. Initially, we compared the index with the SACZ events identified by the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC ) from 2017 to 2021. Results showed that the index represented all events identified SACZs by CPTEC. Finally, we used data from the GFS 0.25 Degree from 2017 to 2021 to calculate Accuracy, Probability of detection, and False alarm ratio to evaluate the SACZ index as a prediction tool. Three thresholds are defined for the binary classification of a possible SACZ event. Results showed that above the most sensitive threshold (h1), within 10 days in advance, the sign of a possible SACZ can be detected. For the intermediate threshold (h2), a forecast of 96 h can detect a sign. For the most specific threshold (h3), the index can detect the event within 72 h in advance with a probability of detection of almost 90%. The SACZ index proved to be an efficient tool for detecting the dynamics of the phenomenon and can be used to assist operationally and in decision-making.
773.1.#.t: Atmósfera; Vol. 38 (2024); 91-104
773.1.#.o: https://www.revistascca.unam.mx/atm/index.php/atm/index
022.#.#.a: ISSN electrónico: 2395-8812; ISSN impreso: 0187-6236
310.#.#.a: Trimestral
300.#.#.a: Páginas: 91-104
264.#.1.b: Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, UNAM
doi: https://doi.org/10.20937/ATM.53248
harvesting_date: 2023-10-03 16:10:00.0
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file_modification_date: 2023-08-01 01:54:52.0
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